Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. MOST SIGNIFICANT
   CHANGES INCLUDE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND THE SRN PORTION OF A
   CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN
   GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MOST FEATURES WILL BE SUBTLE...THOUGH
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAR NRN U.S. TROUGH ...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
   TO MOVE SEWD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
   SRN NEB/SERN WY AT LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...
   ALTHOUGH LARGER SCALE RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA...
   MOIST TROPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40
   KT...AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE FROM
   THE SWRN CONUS NEWD OVER THIS REGION. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A
   STRONG SIGNAL OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SRN SD/NEB BY LATE
   AFTERNOON...TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. A WARMING AND
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY...MLCAPES
   FROM 1500-3500 J/KG...AND THE VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE... THE
   MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE FORECAST OF WEAK
   WINDS AROUND 700 MB.
   
   OVERNIGHT...THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AS LOW LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO
   THE MID MO VALLEY.
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...
   HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
   CONVECTION...CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL EVOLVE INTO AN MCS
   AND BE LOCATED IN THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AREA AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD.  WHILE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
   BY THAT TIME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS REMNANT CONVECTION TO
   REINTENSIFY/REGENERATE AS IT SHIFTS ESEWD INTO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES AOA 4000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...THE DEGREE
   OF INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT MID LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A THREAT FOR
   SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ...MAINE...
   AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF AREA...AIR MASS WILL BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND LARGE SCALE LIFTING MAY INCREASE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC... IN
   RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
   WHILE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
   BY LATE AFTERNOON...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP
   SINCE THE MAIN FORCING REMAIN IN SRN CANADA UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
   THEREFORE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ATTM.
   
   ...THE SOUTHEAST...
   STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WILL ONCE
   AGAIN SUPPORT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
   WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ERN AR AREA... WINDS ALOFT
   WILL BE WEAK...BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NLY AT AROUND 10
   KT. THE SWD MOVING STORMS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER SR INFLOW...AND HIGH
   PWAT VALUES MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF
   ANY STORMS CONGEAL INTO A SMALL CLUSTER/S AND DEVELOP WEAK COLD
   POOL/S.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/10/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z