Jul 26, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 26 06:01:27 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110726 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110726 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 260549
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD
   INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH BELT OF WLY/S ACROSS THE
   NRN STATES AND MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
   STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN A WEAK
   FRONT TO DROP SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. SREF/GFS SHOW
   SYNOPTIC FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE  NRN MN/WI BORDER SWWD INTO
   NWRN KS. NAM FRONTAL POSITION IS MUCH FARTHER SEWD ACROSS
   WI...DEPICTING EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY DUE TO FORECAST OF MORNING MCS
   MOVING EWD INTO NRN WI/U.P. WED MORNING.
   
   ...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
   NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL ON OVERNIGHT MCS MOVING FROM MN INTO
   NRN MI/U.P. DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH SREF/GFS AND SOME HIGH
   RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. STORM COMPLEX WILL BE
   PUSHING EWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...BUT
   IF SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED COLD POOL..30-40 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY
   SUSTAIN SEVERE WIND THREAT DURING THE MORNING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI.
   STORM COMPLEX SHOULD BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE AS IT TRACKS EWD INTO A
   MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED ACROSS LOWER MI.
   
   THOUGH NO STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON MODELS...FLATTENED RIDGE
   AND MOIST TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT WEAK
   EMBEDDED IMPULSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE WEAK
   LIFT COMBINED WITH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN
   STORMS INITIATING LATER IN THE DAY NEAR OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/FRONT...FROM CENTRAL/SRN WI SWWD SRN MN/NRN IA. MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
   WITH PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE...THOUGH HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   ROTATING STORMS.
   
   ...KS/NEB...
   COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPERATURES
   WARMING INTO THE 105 TO 110F RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
   ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS FROM ERN NEB SWWD INTO NRN KS. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AT 20-25 KT WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS.
   HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SHOULD
   AID IN STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY LATE IN THE
   DAY. SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... WITH A THREAT
   FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE STORMS SHIFT ESEWD DURING THE
   EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/26/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z