Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 281721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONGER WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES TO THE
   NORTH OF EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE SRN AND
   CNTRL STATES...ESSENTIALLY FROM COAST TO COAST. A COUPLE OF LOW
   AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SPREAD EAST WITHIN THE BELT OF
   FAST FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A LEADING SHORT WAVE
   WAVE...CURRENTLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WILL
   CONTINUE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MODEST
   HEIGHT FALLS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FROPA FROM WRN NY
   TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SYNOPTIC FRONT...LIKELY
   SEGMENTED AND INTERSPERSED WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOWS...WILL TRAIL FROM THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST DISTURBANCE WSW
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE.
   
   A TRAILING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WLYS IS FORECAST
   TO BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BY
   LATE IN THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER
   ERN MT/WY BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOW AND FRONT TRACKING OVER THE
   DAKOTAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   LASTLY...TROPICAL STORM DON IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST TX COAST DURING FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE.
   ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN GULF COAST NWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY WELL REMOVED FROM THE SMALLER TROPICAL CIRCULATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH DON. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD BRING A
   THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE TX COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
   CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DON MOVE INLAND.
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   BOTH SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
   SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NY DURING THE DAY.
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NERN PA AND NRN
   NJ ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY INTO SWRN NEW
   ENGLAND...FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND SOME
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...GREATER LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE
   LOW WOULD ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO IF STRONGER
   DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   WHILE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY COME LATER IN THE
   PERIOD AND PROBABLY REMAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
   BORDER...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE LOW/TROUGH AND
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION DUE TO HEATING WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
   SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WY/SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 35-40KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A CHANCE
   FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS OCCURRING FROM THE NEB PNHDL
   NWD TO SERN MT AND WRN SD.
   
   ...MIDWEST TO CNTRL PLAINS...
   PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND DIURNAL HEATING OF VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 15-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
   PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH ISOLATED/LOCAL STRONG WINDS
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/28/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z