Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 030500
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2011
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
   SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY...WHILE REMAINING
   QUASI-STATIONARY OR PERHAPS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE
   PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH
   WILL LIE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR JET POSITION LINGERING
   MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  GIVEN THE WEAK DEEP LAYER
   MEAN FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR...AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING BENEATH
   MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN U.S...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   STILL APPEARS LOW FOR THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...MID/LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
   CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS
   CONCERNING A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED IMPULSE EMERGING FROM
   THE MONSOONAL REGIME OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ITS
   INFLUENCE ON THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER AND FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS
   THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
   PROGRESS OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   TODAY...AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...BEFORE
   CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
   AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY.  SOME RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
   AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF MODEST FLOW...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A NEW MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THIS
   RISK STILL APPEARS TOO REMOTE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...OZARK PLATEAU THRU THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... 
   CAPE FOR THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG THE FRONT PROBABLY
   WILL BECOME LARGE /UP TO AROUND 3000 J/KG/ WITH DAYTIME HEATING
   THURSDAY.  WHILE THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVELS...WEAK
   SHEAR AND WEAK/UNCERTAIN UPPER FORCING...ALL SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT
   MAY BE LIMITED TO SHORT-LIVED LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
   AS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE BROADER SCALE PACIFIC COAST UPPER
   TROUGH LIFTS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES...ASSOCIATED FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES
   THURSDAY.  FORCING WILL BE WEAKER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
   BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...BUT MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SHOULD STILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF
   WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE ORGANIZED
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS REMOTE...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES APPEAR JUSTIFIED AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/03/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z