Aug 12, 2011 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 12 05:57:06 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110812 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110812 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 120554
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MS
   VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD...AS A TROUGH OFF THE W COAST MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS...AND A
   SECOND OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS DIGS/EXPANDS SEWD. 
   BETWEEN...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK LOW/FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD
   ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO THE
   MID MS/OH/TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. 
   THIS SURFACE LOW/FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD FOCUS THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY
   REGION AND VICINITY.
   
   ...MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY AND VICINITY...
   STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN A
   BROAD ZONE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   SSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING SEWD
   ACROSS THE REGION.  
   
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY -- AIDED BY AN ARCING 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
   THE DIGGING TROUGH.  WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND THREAT LIKELY WITH
   STRONGER STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT WILL
   SHIFT THE AREA GENERALLY NWWD TO REFLECT CHANGING/VARYING MODEL
   SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/12/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z