Aug 12, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 12 17:12:04 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110812 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110812 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 121709
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IN/IL SWD INTO THE WRN TN
   VALLEY...
   
   ..SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...AS UPPER LOW DIGS
   SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND UPPER
   RIDGE BUILDS NWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT
   WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND
   EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH AR AND THEN
   WSWWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX AT LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...MID MS AND WRN TN VALLEYS...
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE SUSTAINED IN THE AR AREA DURING THE
   MORNING...DUE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS
   REMNANT ACTIVITY AND EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY SHOULD
   SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
   STRENGTHENING WNWLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WARMING AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED
   TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIR MASS TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY FROM MORNING CONVECTION FOR STORMS
   TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF AR/OK. HOWEVER...NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ALOFT SUGGESTS CONVERGENCE
   ALONG FRONT WILL BE WEAK...AND STORM COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
   TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...IL/IND AREA...
   CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MORNING CONVECTION COULD BE A LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE LIFTING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
   UPPER TROUGH...COMBINED WITH AREAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMS/DESTABILIZES SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WLY...STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH LEVEL
   WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SHEAR
   PROFILES APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
   WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..IMY.. 08/12/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z