Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 130547
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
   COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD...WITH THE WRN TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ALONG WITH THE
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...AND THE ERN TROUGH CONTINUING A SLOW SEWD DIG
   WITH TIME.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE NWRN CONUS
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH A LEE TROUGH TO PERSIST OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS.  IN THE EAST...A MORE DIFFUSE/ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT
   IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS...AND SHOULD APPROACH THE
   ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   WIDESPREAD ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM THE APPALACHIANS EWD AT
   THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   TO A GREAT DEGREE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE
   DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT AND GENERALLY MODEST FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  WILL
   MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND -- AS SOME AREAS WILL
   LIKELY EXPERIENCE GREATER DESTABILIZATION LOCALLY -- AND THUS
   POCKETS OF STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE.  THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD
   LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
   -- THOUGH WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE -- MAY PROVIDE
   ASSISTANCE FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
   AIRMASS HEATS/DESTABILIZES.
   
   THOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODEST...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO WLY
   ALOFT WILL YIELD AMPLE SHEAR TO ASSIST WITH ORGANIZATION OF ANY
   DEVELOPING STORM.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF LOW-PROBABILITY
   SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN PLAINS
   REGION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/13/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z