Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 111659
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN WI INTO UPPER MI...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER TROUGH
   WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE RED
   RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z MON EWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO THROUGH
   EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS WI AND INTO SERN MN.
   AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
   50S F DUE TO TRAJECTORIES OUT OF THE SERN U.S. HIGH.
   
   ...MN ARROWHEAD INTO NRN WI AND UPPER MI...
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD BY
   AFTERNOON...WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. AS
   PEAK HEATING IS ACHIEVED...STORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD INTO NRN WI AND
   UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S F...STRONG FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A SWATH OF
   SEVERE POTENTIAL. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WNWLY AND
   INCREASING IN SPEED ALOFT WILL CREATE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW CELLS COULD
   PRODUCE A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANY REMAINING
   WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIE ACROSS UPPER MI.
   
   STORM COVERAGE WITH SRN EXTENT BECOMES MUCH LESS PROBABLE DUE TO
   ONLY MARGINAL FORCING NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND CAPPING...BUT WILL
   MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/11/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z