Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 141702
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SYNOPTIC UPPER
   LOW THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. CUTOFF
   UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN
   AS IT EJECTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE
   WRN U.S. COAST. A LARGE CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. COLD FRONT DEMARCATING
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NERN STATES
   SWWD TO ALONG THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO S-CNTRL AND SWRN TX
   EARLY THURSDAY...CONTINUING SEWD DURING THE DAY. SWRN PORTION OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SRN TX. 
   
   ...SWRN US THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE A POST FRONTAL COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME WITH
   ELY UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SWD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE WILL
   MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
   ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL NM THROUGH SRN AZ
   DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   WHERE 25-35 KT BULK SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER
   TROUGH. STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   FROM SERN AZ THROUGH CNTRL NM. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE MAY
   BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
   HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR
   MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  
   
   ...COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...
   
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
   TENDENCY FOR STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN POST
   FRONTAL SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/14/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z