Oct 2, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 2 17:20:03 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20111002 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20111002 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 021717
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/BEGIN TO SPLIT AS IT DIGS ALONG THE WEST
   COAST ON MONDAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE
   CENTRAL CONUS AND A CLOSED/DEEP UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
   OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
   
   WHILE SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS
   WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN STATES INCLUDING
   THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   ADDITIONALLY...WEAK BUOYANCY/EXIT REGION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
   CYCLONE-ASSOCIATED UPPER JET COULD YIELD ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS
   MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEAST NY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/02/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z