Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 151714
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AND WED EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE ERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MORE OR LESS ZONAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BROADLY CYCLONIC
   FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN STATES...ALTHOUGH SOME SHARPENING OF UPPER TROUGHING MAY
   OCCUR AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS FROM THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WAVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
   STATES...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH THE PRIMARY
   SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
   EMERGING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ALONG AND SOUTH
   OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE.  HOWEVER... MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...AND THIS PROBABLY WILL
   LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVEN WITH SUBSTANTIVE DAYTIME
   HEATING.  THIS LIMITATION...COUPLED WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
   DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
   REMAIN SUBDUED.  EVEN SO...GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATIONS OF
   STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...THERE
   MAY BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS PRIMARILY IS EXPECTED TO BE
   CONFINED TO THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
   MIDDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE
   CAROLINAS BY THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR AT
   LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES ...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/15/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z