Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 221726
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REACH THE
   CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
   ADVANCE TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH
   WRN VA...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND THE FL PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING OFF
   THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MID-DAY.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS...
   
   A STRONG SSWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID
   ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER
   TROUGH AND ATTENDANT EWD MIGRATING SURFACE LOW. DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW-MID 60S WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE SMALL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
   CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF
   DIABATIC WARMING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB
   800 J/KG. A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG /40+ KT/
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS. EMBEDDED LEWP AND
   BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THIS LOW
   CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD
   POTENTIALLY LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS. WILL THEREFORE
   MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK...BUT CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING DAY 1 UPDATES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/22/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z