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| Probabilistic Graphic |
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 270641 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2011 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z/MON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH...AND TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE-TILT BY EARLY TUE AS AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF NRN GA MON MORNING SHOULD TRACK NWD TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY...WITH AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. ...PORTIONS OF THE GA/SC/NC COASTAL PLAINS... DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS DCVA/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASE AND FASTER MID-LEVEL SLYS OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN COMBINATION WITH INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIKELY PROGRESS NEWD FROM ERN GA INTO ERN NC MON EVENING/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 60-65 F AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5-5.5 C/KM WILL HAMPER THE POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND RESULT IN ONLY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 250 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING COVERAGE MAY BE SPORADIC AT BEST...LOW-LEVEL S/SELYS AOA 40 KTS WITHIN THE STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND. ..GRAMS.. 11/27/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z