Dec 13, 2011 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 13 17:13:06 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20111213 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20111213 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 131710
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2011
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   
   LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
   FORCED TO EJECT TOWARD THE PLAINS AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
   AHEAD OF DIGGING NWRN U.S. SPEED MAX.  THIS LEAD FEATURE SHOULD
   TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM IN A POSITIVE-TILT FASHION ULTIMATELY LIMITING
   PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  EVEN
   SO...STRONG LLJ EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PROVE FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS TX WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC DEW
   POINTS TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO COLD
   FRONTAL PASSAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LEADING INTO
   THE DAY2 PERIOD AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF KS/OK INTO NWRN TX.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NWRN TX
   AT SUNRISE EXHIBIT MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND THIS MAY BE
   ADEQUATE FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  WITH TIME LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WILL WANE ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS TX AS LLJ AND
   STRONGER FORCING SHIFT INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION.  EVEN
   SO...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...LIKELY
   INITIATING JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE UPPER 60S.  IF THIS OCCURS AS THE NAM INSINUATES THEN A FEW
   WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT...OR PERHAPS
   CONVECTION WILL DISPLAY SOME LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS THAT COULD
   RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE MID
   MS VALLEY DUE TO THE MEAGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED PRIOR TO FRONTAL
   PASSAGE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 12/13/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z