Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 150533
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST WED DEC 14 2011
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
   PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...STILL
   APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH
   OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS BROAD UPPER
   RIDGING...WITHIN A MORE PROMINENT NORTHERN STREAM...CONTINUES TO
   SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA. 
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW INTO BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
   TROUGHING...CURVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
   WESTERN ATLANTIC...CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
   COAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GENERALLY
   STABLE CONDITIONS...AND...WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF MINOR
   EXCEPTIONS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
   FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.
   
   ...TENNESSEE VALLEY...
   FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE ACCELERATING
   THROUGH STRONG CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...MAY
   REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE LIFT WITHIN A STALLED OR SLOWLY
   SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE MORNING INTO MID DAY
   HOURS.  GIVEN NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING WEAK CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY AND CAPE BASED ABOVE 700 MB...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...BEFORE DRYING
   AND SUBSIDENCE STABILIZES THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE
   DAY.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST...
   PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLD...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW COULD SUPPORT A
   COUPLE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
   DESERTS AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/15/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z