Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 161724
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2011
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
   SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER AMPLITUDE
   BELT OF WESTERLIES EVOLVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WITHIN A SOUTHERN SPLIT AND WELL REMOVED FROM
   THE NORTHERN TIER WESTERLIES...A PROMINENT CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
   LITTLE OVER NORTHERN BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN CA AND THE ADJACENT LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/AZ...
   THE NORTHERN BAJA/FAR SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW MAY SHIFT A BIT
   NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH ONE OR MORE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
   MAXIMA EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY VICINITY ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITHIN A WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW TSTMS MAY
   INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CA...BEFORE A LIMITED TSTM
   POTENTIAL DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/PORTIONS OF AZ.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED LATE
   SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX WITHIN A WEAK WARM
   ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCES OF SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING ALOFT AND ONLY A VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /ELEVATED/
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT SUCH TSTM POTENTIAL IS VERY
   LOW /BELOW 10 PERCENT/.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/16/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z