SPC AC 300730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...EAST TX/LA/MS/AL...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE ARKLATEX WITH CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THAT
TIME SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S F AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA IS INTRODUCED FROM SE TX EWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE.
ATTM...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN LA AND
WRN MS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TEMPS WOULD HAVE A CHANCE
TO BE WARMER. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
NAM ARE PRETTY CLOSE SUGGESTING ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO GO WITH
A SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEPEND
ON THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR.
..BROYLES.. 01/30/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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