SPC AC 190817
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE NERN
STATES WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z MON. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY 00Z..AND TO THE DELMARVA BY 12Z TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM N TX NEWD TO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF IT. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TRACKING ACROSS
AR AND INTO KY DURING THE DAY. S TO SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F OVER THE WARM SECTOR
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
TROUGH...WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
VEERED...LIMITING NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT SOMEWHAT.
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR OVER MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND IN FACT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND TRACKING EWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN SUCH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED DESPITE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES.
..JEWELL.. 02/19/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
|
