SPC AC 260731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST BELT OF WLYS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.
BENEATH HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM UPPER LOW
OFF WRN U.S. COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE FARTHER EAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY. STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM NRN
FL WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY MOVE NWD THROUGH TX AS LEE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN OR W-CNTRL TX AS
MODIFIED CP AIR ADVECTS NWWD.
...FL THROUGH THE GULF COAST...
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COULD SPREAD INLAND DURING
THE MORNING AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. WHERE DIABATIC WARMING DOES OCCUR
MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DESTABILIZE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF FRONT OR EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHER MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 40-55 KT IN WARM SECTOR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN THREAT.
...WRN THROUGH W-CNTRL TX...
RETURN OF MODIFIED CP AIR BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX
EWD THROUGH WRN AND W-CNTRL TX MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE DAY AND CAPPING INVERSION WITH
EML PLUME...ONLY VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE
OF MIXING ALONG DRYLINE. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...ERN OK...SERN KS AND NWRN AR...
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN NWD
DESTABILIZATION AND SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF BOUNDARY
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA OF INITIATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF GREATER MUCAPE WHERE
CAP SHOULD BE WEAKER ALONG NERN EXTENSION OF EML PLUME. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..DIAL.. 03/26/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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