SPC AC 290655
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A CORRESPONDING
UPSTREAM RIDGE IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH
MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA.
...FL...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF SERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH...INDUCING A WEAK SFC LOW ON FRONT OVER NRN FL OR
SRN GA THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. WSWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN...AND A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN
WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONCERN AND POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL-NRN FL. IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STORMS SHOULD FORM EARLY OVER THE GULF
AND SPREAD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA. SOME DIABATIC
WARMING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INTENSIFICATION. STORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT ESEWD DURING THE DAY
AS ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING MOVES TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
..DIAL.. 03/29/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
|
