Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 280724
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF N TX AND
   ADJACENT SRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
   DIGGING/PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD WITH TIME...DISASSEMBLING INTO TO
   SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS WITH TIME -- A MORE NRN SHORT-WAVE FEATURE
   MOVING MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE...AND A SECOND FEATURE WHICH WILL CONTINUE
   SLOWLY DIGGING SSEWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO AZ/NM.  
   
   AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES...THE NRN PORTION OF THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT CROSSING THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
   PORTION OF THE CONUS...CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
   LATE.  MEANWHILE...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY SEWD
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LIKELY SLOWING OR EVEN STALLING AND LAYING
   OUT ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS N TX BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  WHILE SHOWERS
   AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
   UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE DAY...MAIN
   SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF
   TX/OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   ...RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK/N TX...
   AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN
   TROUGH...STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
   DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF DAY 3 /SAT. 4-30/ OVER CENTRAL AND N TX.
    WITH THE ROUGHLY W-E PORTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO LIE
   ACROSS N TX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...STRONG ISENTROPIC
   LIFT/WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
   ELEVATED STORMS.  WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND 50 KT
   WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION
   APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL WITH A FEW
   STRONGER/POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/28/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z