Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 120709
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF
   COAST STATES...
   
   ...ERN GULF COAST STATES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
   EWD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS
   THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. MODEL FORECASTS SATURDAY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
   AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE WARM SECTOR WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NWD
   FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
   EARLY IN THE DAY...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD STILL OCCUR
   ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT IMPACTED BY STORM OUTFLOW. AS NEW
   STORMS INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND ON THE COLD FRONT...THE
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND OH
   VALLEY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
   50S F WHICH SHOULD KEEP DESTABILIZATION WEAK. HOWEVER...A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE OH VALLEY AND
   CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE TEMPS
   ALOFT WILL BE COLD AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   SHOULD EXIST.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/12/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z