Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 210727
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BEGINS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD
   THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
   DURING THIS PERIOD...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
   FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION...WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND THE
   WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LINGERING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  THIS IS WHERE
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODESTLY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE
   OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
   U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL PERHAPS
   THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A
   SIGNIFICANT PRECEDING IMPULSE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   IS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN AN
   EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM ADVECTION ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED
   BENEATH WARM AND STRONGER CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALONG THE DRY
   LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
   2000-3000+ J/KG IS PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO
   WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS
   IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
   ALSO POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THE EASTERN
   TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
   TEXAS.  ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL ADVECT EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND
   DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING DURING THE EVENING
   HOURS...WITH PRIMARY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG AND
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS.
   
   ...OHIO VALLEY...
   AS THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...JUST AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   PIVOTING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY...A BELT OF STRONGER
   FORCING AND SHEAR TO ITS SOUTH PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE... WITH PERHAPS
   AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...PRIMARILY WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/21/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z