Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 200711
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO
   THE TN VALLEY...EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY...EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC...
   
   LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
   SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW FROM SRN MN/NRN IA INTO SRN WI BY THE END
   OF THE DAY3 PERIOD.  AT 23/00Z BOTH MODELS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN
   THEIR PLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT SFC LOW...DIRECTLY BENEATH MID LEVEL
   CIRCULATION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ARCING ACROSS ERN IL INTO ERN
   AR AND A WARM FRONT LIKELY TO DRAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE
   WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM...MOIST AND BUOYANT INTO MID
   WEEK ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
   AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS.  IN THE ABSENCE OF OBVIOUS STRONG
   FORCING IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AIDED IN LARGE PART TO ZONES OF LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL POSITIONS AND OLD
   CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES FROM DAY2 TSTM COMPLEXES.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREATS AHEAD OF THIS
   SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/20/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z