Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 240730
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS-VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...MID-MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH
   VALLEY. A BROAD CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH
   VALLEY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID-MS VALLEY ON THE NOSE OF A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME
   MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE
   THE ACTIVITY WOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED DUE TO WARMING SFC
   TEMPS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD
   ALSO HELP MAINTAIN THE MCS SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
   DEVELOP OR INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
   WEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ERN KS
   AND MO WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BUT THE
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED.
   
   ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
   WEST SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A BROAD CORRIDOR OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM ERN WY ENEWD ACROSS
   ND INTO NRN MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE QUITE STRONG ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT
   MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SD WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 45 TO 60 KT RANGE. SOME TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE DOMINATE MODE REMAINS DISCRETE AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
   DOMINANT SUPERCELLS DUE TO THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE MOST
   LIKELY WITH BOWING-LINE SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN DEVELOP
   AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED A 30 PERCENT SEVERE
   PROBABILITY AND SIG HATCHED AREA ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AND THE COMBINATION
   OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z