Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 130726
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CENTRAL
   U.S....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS THE NERN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER NEWD INTO THE
   ATLANTIC/CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
   EXPAND THIS PERIOD...FORCING THE WRN U.S. TROUGH TO DIG SWD AS
   OPPOSED TO PROGRESS EWD.  MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE
   CONFINED TO THE N CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES SHIFT
   ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
   
   ALONG WITH THESE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVING ALONG NWRN PORTIONS OF
   THE RIDGE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE MAINTAINED
   ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...N CENTRAL CONUS...
   AS SOME SUPPRESSION OF THE NWRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES WITH
   PERSISTENT PASSAGE OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW FIELD
   ALOFT...WEAK SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS VICINITY.  AS AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OCCURS INVOF THE
   WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM...DIURNAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS AGAIN
   FORECAST.  
   
   SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST...WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ATOP LOW-LEVEL
   SLYS...SHEAR WILL AGAIN SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. 
   THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK/15% FORECAST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
   U.S. AND WWD INTO MT -- WITH THREAT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
   
   ...THE SOUTHEAST...
   LINGERING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE BUT GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT
   SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
   ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT.  NAM FORECASTS WOULD
   SUGGEST SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL POSSIBLE INVOF GA/AL AND VICINITY
   NEAR AN 850 MB LOW...BUT THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH THIS
   SCENARIO...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM..
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/13/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z