Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 150714
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STOUT UPPER HIGH OF NEARLY 600 DM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD...
   BECOMING CENTERED OVER SRN NEB BY SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHS ALONG
   BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS.  THIS WILL CONFINE THE PRIMARY
   BELT OF WLYS FROM THE PAC NW INTO SRN CANADA AND THE UPR GREAT LAKES
   REGION.
   
   ...UPR GREAT LAKES/ERN PORTIONS N PLAINS...
   PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEAR/N OF THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY SUNDAY WITH WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC
   TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE REGION /H5 AOA MINUS 7 DEG C/.  ALONG
   THE EDGE OF THIS CAP...SATURDAY NIGHT/S MCS OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE EWD JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
   NIGHT.
   
   ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE DAYTIME MCS
   MAY BACKBUILD AND/OR DEVELOP ESE INTO PARTS NRN MN...NRN WI AND
   UPR/NRN LWR MI SUNDAY AFTN. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG...BUT CAPPING CONCERNS MAY
   LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.  REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
   45-50 KTS OF WNW MID-LVL FLOW AND IF BUOYANCY INDEED IS
   RELEASED...ORGANIZED SVR WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ATTM...HOWEVER... GIVEN
   UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF MCS/S AND PLACEMENT OF THE
   FRONT...WILL REFRAIN FROM A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/15/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z