Jul 26, 2011 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 26 07:25:06 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110726 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110726 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 260722
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD
   INTO THE SWRN LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WLY/S WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...WITH LARGE RIDGE ALOFT
   ANCHORED OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL CONUS. WITHIN THE WLY/S...A 50-60 KT
   MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN
   GREAT LAKES...AND HELP REINFORCE SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN
   GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES...
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN ON THU SINCE WED/S STORMS
   WILL LEAVE BEHIND BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MORNING
   CONVECTION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WITHIN MOIST MID/HIGH
   TROPICAL PLUME ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE... SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE FEATURES COMBINED
   WITH FRONTAL/BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT
   IN A FEW POCKETS OF STORMS DEVELOPING/REINTENSIFYING DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
   SSWLY TO WLY/WNWLY AS SPEED MAX SHIFTS EWD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
   35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM NEB EWD INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AND
   25-35 KT IN KS AND ERN CO. THIS SHEAR AND MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS. VERY HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
   WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS LINE SEGMENTS...WITH WIND
   DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/26/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z