Aug 11, 2011 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 11 07:50:04 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110811 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110811 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 110747
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
   THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGIONS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD
   WITH POSITIVE TILT AXIS LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
   INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE ACCOMPANYING
   SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
   ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEYS AND SRN PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...OH VALLEY THROUGH TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...
   
   SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
   INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY. SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
   FROM RETREATING MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
   MOIST. AS STORMS ADVANCE EWD...AREAS OF CLOUDS...POOR LAPSE RATES
   AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY. FOR THIS REASON THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION...BUT A CATEGORICAL RISK
   MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   BETTER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE SWLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
   TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
   THIS REGION WILL EXIST JUST SOUTH OF MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH
   UPPER TROUGH BASE. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP AND
   INTENSIFY ALONG PRE-EXISTING PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA.  PRIMARY
   THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 08/11/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z