Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 180727
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAKLY RISING HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALOFT DAY 3...AS THE ERN U.S.
   TROUGH WEAKENS/SHIFTS EWD.  WHILE A COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD
   ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL
   WEAKEN WITH TIME.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST RELATIVELY LOWER
   CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS.
   
   ...OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH AREA...
   WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID SOUTH REGION SHOULD
   FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS MODEST
   AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL
   LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF
   THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS IN QUESTION.  ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE
   ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA -- TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...
   DESPITE GENERALLY MODEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
   AREA...LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
   AFTERNOON STORMS AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL...BUT DEGREE OF THREAT APPEARS TO WARRANT ONLY LOW SEVERE
   WEATHER PROBABILITY INTRODUCTION ATTM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/18/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z