Aug 25, 2011 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 06:48:05 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110825 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20110825 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 250645
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2011
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...WITH NWLY FLOW AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY.
   A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH
   RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. DESPITE
   THIS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AS WELL AS MODERATE
   FLOW. ELSEWHERE...IRENE WILL CONTINUE NWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST...POSSIBLY AFFECTING ERN NC.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL FORM BY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE
   FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF THETA-E WILL BE
   MAINTAINED BY A SELY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
   EVENING. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE INTO THE
   DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB OVERNIGHT...BUT SRN EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BY
   CAPPING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/25/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z