| Categorical Graphic |
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| Probabilistic Graphic |
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 160727 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2011 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...SYNOPSIS... THE CONTINUANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO VICINITIES. ...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY... A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...WHILE MOISTURE OTHERWISE SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT. GIVEN AMPLE HEATING...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AMID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS...WHILE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN /BUT LIKELY MUCH WEAKER/ ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY BE PERSISTENT. WHILE AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/ADVANCING FRONT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND/OR WIND...A PARTICULARLY FOCUSED/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THAT THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...FACTORS SUCH AS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE/WEAKENING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /30 KT OR LESS/...IMPLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPORADIC HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS A BROAD PART OF THE REGION. ..GUYER.. 09/16/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z