Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 230812
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CST WED NOV 23 2011
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...AS NWRN AND SWRN CONUS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK MOVE INLAND.  GIVEN
   FASTER TRANSLATION AND CONTINUING STRENGTHENING OF NWRN
   PERTURBATION...NET DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER
   ROCKIES AND PLAINS IS FCST DURING LATER HALF OF PERIOD...IN RESPONSE
   TO PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS.  BY END OF PERIOD...EXPECT TROUGHING
   FROM NRN MB SSEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO OK...THEN SSWWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SW TX TO N-CENTRAL MEX.
   
   AT SFC...FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION
   LATE DAY-2 INTO DAY-3 OVER NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  RESULTANT COLD
   FRONT SHOULD INTENSIFY EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN BY 26/00Z...EXTEND
   FROM FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN SD/WRN MN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS.  BY 26/12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW OVER WI SWWD
   ACROSS MO...SERN OK AND W-CENTRAL/SW TX.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   DEPARTURE OF CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE AND RELATED RIDGING FROM NRN
   GULF WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...SUCH THAT AIR MASS MODIFICATION/RETURN
   STILL SHOULD BE QUITE IMMATURE EVEN BY LATE DAY-3.  GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WILL BE AFTER DARK IN
   1. ELEVATED/LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOIST-ADVECTION REGIME OCCURRING AHEAD
   OF FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL THROUGH NE TX...AND/OR
   2. SW-NE BAND OF FRONTAL FORCING FROM NW TX ACROSS OK TO OZARKS.
   
   DESPITE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW AND
   CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES ATTM...PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF LACK OF
   MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN IN WAKE OF STG FROPA NOW AFFECTING NWRN
   GULF.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z