Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 250805
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
   THE LARGE DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ALLUDED TO IN THE D2
   OUTLOOK...INCREASES FURTHER INTO D3 AND RENDERS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
   IN THIS FORECAST.
   
   AFTER A PERIOD OF PHASING LATE FRI INTO SAT ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE
   00Z ECMWF FORMS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
   MON...FARTHER SW THAN THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MEANWHILE...THE
   GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN MAINTAIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
   ERN ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUITE CONTRASTING WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
   HOLDING THE FRONT ACROSS AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS IS
   SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON. AS
   SUCH...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INLAND PENETRATION OF
   LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE EFFECTIVELY
   PINCHES OFF THIS MOISTURE RETURN WITH SEEMINGLY MINIMAL TSTM
   POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD. A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT COULD
   MATERIALIZE IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST BASED SOLELY ON THE ECMWF. BUT
   GIVEN THE VERY LARGE SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE...WILL DEFER TO LATER
   FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/25/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z