Apr 14, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 14 00:43:29 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120414 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120414 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120414 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120414 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 140039
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
   
   VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
   CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
   STATES...HAS ADDED TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.  THIS MAY MOST STRONGLY IMPACT THE
   TORNADIC POTENTIAL...WHICH EARLIER APPEARED AS IF IT WOULD INCREASE
   AT LEAST INTO THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO
   NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 ACROSS TEXAS INTO
   OKLAHOMA...AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL PROVIDE
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES... WHERE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. 
   AND THERE MAY BE A CORRIDOR NEAR/NORTH OF CLINTON INTO THE ENID
   VICINITY...EAST OF THE RETREATING DRY LINE LINE...THAT HAS NOT BEEN
   SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY CONVECTION.
   
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...BENEATH DIFLUENT AND
   DIVERGENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
   EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TONIGHT...ON
   THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGING...DOWNSTREAM OF A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.  REGARDLESS OF TORNADIC
   POTENTIAL...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
    WHILE ONE AREA OF STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
   TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
   ANOTHER AREA COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK BREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/14/2012
   
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