Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 140543
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL
   KANSAS/WESTERN IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN
   IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND PARTS
   OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW DIGGING
   INTO THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
   U.S...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
   TODAY...BEFORE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE A
   90-100+ KT 500 MB JET CORE...WHICH MAY BE PRECEDED BY ANOTHER
   SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ CENTRAL
   PLAINS REGION DURING THE DAY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ASSOCIATED
   FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
   CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A 1000 MB LOW
   CENTER DEEPENING BELOW 990 MB ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
   NEBRASKA BETWEEN 14/12Z AND 15/00Z.  WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR...A
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO
   CENTRAL PLAINS /50+ KT AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING UP
   TO 70 KT DURING THE EVENING/.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   CONTINUING NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE
   RETURNING OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...INTO THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
   EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
   
   THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
   OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS...THAT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  THIS MAY INCLUDE
   SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS...BY TONIGHT... THE
   EVOLUTION OF A SUBSTANTIAL SQUALL LINE.
   
   ...NEBRASKA...
   NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE WRAPPING INTO THE DEEPENING SURFACE
   CYCLONE...INTO THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...CONDITIONS APPEAR
   LIKELY TO BECOME VERY CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER
   JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION.  THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
   18-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
   NEBRASKA...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON.  THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO
   BECOME LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   ...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TEXAS...
   BARRING COMPLICATIONS FROM RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
   ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PROBABLY WILL
   STILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE
   POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   SPARSE...PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
   OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND SURGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ONCE
   THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..KERR/LEITMAN.. 04/14/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z