Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 141620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...WESTERN
   IOWA...KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND OKLAHOMA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...
   
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
   MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
   
   THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS NOW FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST KS
   AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE AIR MASS
   AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
   REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE EARLY THREATS...BUT
   AN INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
   TORNADOES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
   NEB...EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED.
   
   STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK.  MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE WEAK BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS EVENING. 
   AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD BE WIDELY SPACED.  HOWEVER...
   PARAMETERS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK... DAMAGING/VIOLENT
   TORNADOES /4000 J/KG MLCAPE...50-60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
   0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2/.  THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY
   PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AND INTO
   SOUTHERN NEB.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED
   WITH A WEAK CAP AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT
   OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.
   
   ..HART/COHEN.. 04/14/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z