Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 141942
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL AND ERN KS AND
   NEB...AND MUCH OF NRN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK NWD ACROSS
   KS...NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N TX INTO SERN SD AND SRN
   MN...
   
   ...OK/KS...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICK STRATUS RELATED TO THE
   ADVECTION OF MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN TX INTO
   CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
   MPH. A SPECIAL 17Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER
   NEAR 650 MB...WITH RELATIVELY COOL...BUT MOIST...PROFILES IN THE
   LOWEST 3 KM. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES CAPPING
   INCREASING AFTER 21Z OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN OK. THUS...THE
   THREAT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL THERE...BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGE
   OF THE ONGOING HIGH RISK AREA. THUS...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
   
   TO THE W...CLEARING WAS TAKING PLACE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE FROM
   SW KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOWED TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER WRN
   OK...AND AT OR ABOVE 80 F IN THE PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...THE
   ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN THESE AREAS. INDEED...SEVERE
   STORMS WERE ALREADY ONGOING OVER WRN KS INTO FAR NW OK ALONG THE
   DRYLINE...WITH TOWERING CU FARTHER S.
   
   WAVES OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE...WHERE
   CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING AS SURFACE WINDS VEER OVER THE PANHANDLES.
   THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SEVERE...AS LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS. 
   
   MEANWHILE...LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING ALOFT
   WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE ADVANCED THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
   WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13 C TO THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. THIS WILL
   ONLY HELP TO INCREASE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION IN AN ALREADY VOLATILE
   SETUP. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR
   VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE FROM NW OK ACROSS NRN OK INTO CNTRL AND
   S-CNTRL KS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WITH ONGOING CELLS OVER
   CNTRL KS...THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY
   ROLE IN TORNADOGENESIS AS SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THEM LATER. SOME
   OF THE CITIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK INCLUDE ENID...PRATT...GREAT
   BEND...SALINA...HUTCHINSON...WICHITA.
   
   ...NRN KS/NEB...
   LARGE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KS...WITH STRONG
   MESOCYCLONES NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY TORNADOES. THESE CELLS WILL
   CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND
   INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. IN
   ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT...SOME OF THESE HP CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY
   BOW WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL.
   
   ANOTHER LIKELY AREA OF SUPERCELL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM
   NWRN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CU
   FIELD...W OF THE ONGOING KS ACTIVITY...AND E OF THE DRYLINE. BACKED
   SURFACE FLOW OVER NEB...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND COOLING
   ALOFT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPING TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
   THREAT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/14/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/
   
   ...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...
   
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
   MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
   
   THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS NOW FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST KS
   AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE AIR MASS
   AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
   REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE EARLY THREATS...BUT
   AN INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
   TORNADOES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
   NEB...EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED.
   
   STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK.  MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE WEAK BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS EVENING. 
   AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD BE WIDELY SPACED.  HOWEVER...
   PARAMETERS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK... DAMAGING/VIOLENT
   TORNADOES /4000 J/KG MLCAPE...50-60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
   0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2/.  THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY
   PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AND INTO
   SOUTHERN NEB.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED
   WITH A WEAK CAP AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT
   OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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