Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 191248
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012
   
   VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
   PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM SK SWD TO THE SRN RCKYS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   STEADILY E/NE THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM TX THROUGH
   THE MID MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS.  ELSEWHERE...ELONGATED TROUGH
   COMPLEX WILL PERSIST OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WHILE MODERATE WLY
   FLOW OVERSPREADS THE WEST.
   
   SRN PORTION OF THE RCKYS TROUGH...MARKED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
   OVER SRN CO...SHOULD MOVE NE INTO CNTRL KS/S CNTRL NEB THIS
   EVE...AND INTO SW MN/NW IA BY 12Z SUN.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO
   ACCELERATE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS SSEWD...WITH THE
   FRONT OVERTAKING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE NOW EXTENDING SSW FROM WRN KS
   INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.  AT THE SAME TIME...NE MOVEMENT OF CO
   IMPULSE SHOULD IMPART A CORRESPONDING NEWD MOTION TO WRN KS SFC
   WAVE...WITH THE WAVE REACHING SE NEB THIS EVE...AND SE MN EARLY SUN.
   
   THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS LATER TODAY INTO
   TNGT AS SFC HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE REGION.
   
   ...E TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA TODAY/TNGT...
   PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLNS TODAY.  HOWEVER...SFC DATA /ESPECIALLY CONTINUING
   PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ AND BLENDED PW DATA
   SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST.  THIS
   FACTOR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN BROAD/DEEP EML...AMPLE
   SBCAPE /1500-2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN
   INCREASING RISK FOR SVR STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MID MO VLY.  
   
   BAND OF STORMS NOW PRESENT FROM NW IA SWD INTO NW MO/ERN KS MARKS
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EML AND ASSOCIATED WAA.  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
   YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL...THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
   MORNING AS ASSOCIATED LLJ WEAKENS AND BACKS.  NEW STORMS...WITH A
   GREATER SVR POTENTIAL...SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG FRONT/LEE
   TROUGH FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WITH EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING OVERCOME EML CAP.
   
   MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /MAX SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F/ WILL
   LIMIT BUOYANCY.  BUT 40+ KT SWLY 500 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH  
   CO UPR IMPULSE AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF 35 KT SLY LLJ WILL YIELD
   AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  A FEW OF THESE
   MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
   EVE...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS
   A COUPLE TORNADOES.  THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...MORE GENERALLY
   EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY LENGTHY SQLN BY EVE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A
   CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND COULD PRODUCE A BROADER SWATH OR TWO
   OF DMGG WIND INTO TNGT AS THE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN. 
   THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLS AND UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD BEYOND NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
   RETURN. 
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL FL THIS AFTN...
   CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE WLY HI-LVL JET...COOL MID LVL TEMPS
   /AROUND MINUS 10 C AT 500 MB/...AND HI PW /AOA 1.50 INCHES/ MAY
   SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SVR DIURNAL STORMS WITH LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL OVER SRN AND PERHAPS S CNTRL FL.  WITH THE
   BACKGROUND LOW TO MID LVL FLOW ENELY TODAY /RELATIVE TO WLY
   YESTERDAY/...SWRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
   STORMS.  WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE ENHANCED
   BY APPARENT LOW AMPLITUDE UPR IMPULSE APPROACHING THE SW FL CST.  
     
   ...TN VLY/N GA AREA THIS AFTN...
   WRN EXTENSION OF LONG-LIVED...CAROLINAS UPR TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
   CORRIDOR OF COOL MID LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS 14 C AT 500 MB/ ATOP
   STRONGLY-HEATED...RELATIVELY MOIST...VERY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   OVER PARTS OF TN AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  THIS
   SETUP MAY YIELD SCTD DIURNAL PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS
   AND/OR SVR HAIL.
   
   ..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 05/19/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z