Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 251630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
   
   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY AND NRN NEW
   ENGLAND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS...
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS JAMES BAY AND OVER QUEBEC
   THROUGH THE DAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
   CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE AND SATL DATA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AND TO NRN NY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS NRN NEW
   ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN QUEBEC WHERE SEVERE STORMS
   APPEAR MORE LIKELY. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
   FRONT WITH SWD/SWWD EXTENT WILL BE WEAKER...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
   AREAS OF WEAK TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION FROM NY ACROSS NRN VT BY
   LATER TODAY. MLCAPE VALUES IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000
   J PER KG RANGE WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND WRF-ARW MODELS
   DEPICT PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   DEVELOP WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
   FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   WITH REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF STRONGER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
   LATER TODAY. LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF AT MOST SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING A RELATIVELY
   NARROW WINDOW IN SPACE/TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
   GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FORECAST OVER UPSTATE NY INTO NRN VT...A
   FEW ROTATING STORMS MAY EVOLVE IN THIS PERIOD AND POSE SOME THREAT
   OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. SPC HAIL MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED HAIL PERHAPS TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   FARTHER SW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED LESS-ORGANIZED STORMS
   APPEAR LIKELY AS A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FUELS
   DEVELOPMENT FROM OH WWD ACROSS IND/IL. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND ON THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
   MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT
   SETTLING INTO THIS REGION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS STORMS...A
   FEW OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH LATE
   TODAY.
   
   ...WRN KS TO ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK REGION...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE DURING
   21Z-00Z TIME FRAME...DURING PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE BOUNDARY-LAYER
   WARMTH/MIXING.  CONVECTION NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND ADJOINING
   WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENT MAY PERSIST NOCTURNALLY...LEADING TO UPSCALE
   GROWTH/MERGER WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION FARTHER NE OVER CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  
   
   MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE NEAR W-CENTRAL KS TRIPLE POINT...DECREASING BUT
   REMAINING AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE WITH SWD EXTENT WRN OK.  KS
   JUXTAPOSITION OF BOUNDARIES WILL YIELD RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
   JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND SRH ALSO WILL ACCOMPANY BACKED SFC
   WINDS ALONG WARM FRONT...FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP AT
   TRIPLE POINT OR NEARBY DRYLINE SEGMENT AND MOVE DEVIANTLY RIGHTWARD
   IN THAT PART OF WARM-FRONTAL ZONE WHERE CAPE REMAINS SFC-BASED. FCST
   HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SMALL AREA OF 200-400 J/KG 0-1 KM AGL SRH
   ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT...DECREASING SWD. THESE FACTORS SHOULD FOCUS
   TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL ALSO
   IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. 
   
   SPECIFIC FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FARTHER S ACROSS WRN OK/ERN
   TX PANHANDLE REGION ARE RATHER NEBULOUS. HOWEVER...SOME
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING PROGS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION
   BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPS 90S F AND DEW
   POINTS 60S E OF DRYLINE WITH RESULTING MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG... AND
   30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE AFTER DARK
   AS CINH STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY...BUT WITH SOME OVERLAPPING TIME
   WINDOW WHERE SFC PARCELS STILL ARE ACCESSIBLE WITH AID OF INTERNALLY
   FORCED STORM DYNAMICS. 
   
   ...NW TX TO RIO GRANDE...
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN OVER THIS REGION SWD FROM SWRN OK...WHILE
   INITIATION POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE.
   ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION GENERALLY SHOULD BE MORE PURELY DIURNALLY
   DRIVEN AND SHORT-LIVED AS WELL...GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY STG CAPPING
   AND WARM 700-850 MB LAYER IN MORNING RAOBS THAT PERSISTS THROUGH
   AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT AT
   MRGL/5% LEVELS. HOWEVER...ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM AWAY FROM EXISTING
   CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGH-BASED...ATOP INTENSELY HEATED/WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER...AND CAPABLE OF STG-SVR DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL. MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE OVER REGION
   FROM PERMIAN BASIN SWD OVER LOWER PECOS/RIO GRANDE REGIONS. MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SUBTLE/MID-UPPER LEVEL
   PERTURBATIONS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS BIG-BEND REGION AND OVER
   CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MEX NNE OF PAC HURRICANE BUD. EACH MAY ENHANCE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR
   LATE-AFTERNOON TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THIS CORRIDOR.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY...
   THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE LLJ WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO AN
   INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY TONIGHT WHERE
   THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...FL...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS AND PERHAPS
   SOME HAIL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF S FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SWD/SWWD MOVING MULTICELL STORMS
   OCCASIONALLY STRENGTHENING NEAR BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AND/OR CELL
   MERGERS.
   
   ..CARBIN/EDWARDS/PETERS.. 05/25/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z