Jun 4, 2012 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 4 05:55:32 UTC 2012
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20120604 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120604 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120604 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120604 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 040552
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MT INTO NRN ID...ERN WA...NERN
   ORE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD
   INTO WRN TN...AL AND MUCH OF GA...
   
   CORRECTED STATE ABBREVIATION
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS A
   POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY
   00Z...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NW MON NIGHT.
   AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM NRN NV
   ACROSS ID...WITH SHIFTING NWD INTO ERN WA...NRN ID AND WRN MT DURING
   THE EVENING AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
   FRONT. TO THE E OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
   RESULT IN AN AXIS OF UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
   STATE...WHICH WILL FUEL SEVERE STORMS.
   
   TO THE E...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE ERN
   STATES...WITH NWLY FLOW FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES.
   AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FOR
   AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS...AND ALTHOUGH ONLY WEAK FLOW WILL EXIST UNDER THE UPPER
   RIDGE...AT LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
   HEAT OF THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF W TX.
   
   ...CNTRL AND WRN MT...NRN ID...ERN WA...
   STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON...FORMING ON THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN INCLUDING THE ID/WRN MT BORDER FROM SMN TO GTF...AS WELL AS
   ACROSS S CNTRL MT NEAR BILLINGS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS...BUT WRN MT/NRN ID AND ERN WA WILL HAVE
   THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD ALLOW
   FOR A FEW HAILSTONES TO APPROACH 1.75 - 2.00 INCHES. ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF LCL HEIGHTS END UP BEING
   AT LEAST MARGINALLY LOW. THE STRONG FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALSO
   SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BOW WITH AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER W ACROSS NRN ID AND ERN
   WA...AND PERHAPS FAR NERN ORE...AND...THE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL
   INTO THE EVENING AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD
   FRONT EMERGE. THE ZONE IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT
   WILL HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES...WITH AT
   LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINING LATE.
   
   ...TN...NRN AL SEWD ACROSS GA...
   AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AS OF 06Z ACROSS NRN AL AND GA. THIS
   SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD...LAYING DOWN AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION AGAIN
   BY MIDDAY AND EPISODIC DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY OR ON WRN FRINGE OF ANY ONGOING CLUSTERS. MODERATE NWLY
   FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW CORES WILL
   PRODUCE HAIL.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY - AFTERNOON...
   A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SWD TO AROUND THE
   ST. LOUIS AREA BY AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MID 60S F
   DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS
   WILL VEER TO NWLY AROUND 40 KTS IN THE MIDLEVELS...PRODUCING
   SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL. A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY FORM...AND MAY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
   SWD INTO WRN TN BY 06Z WITH A WIND THREAT.
   
   ...NW TX INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
   AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO LIGHT ELY SURFACE
   FLOW. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM FROM ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
   AND S PLAINS. THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR BUT A FEW STRONG
   CORES MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. OTHER
   STORMS MAY FORM EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT THIS MAY BE
   TIED TO WHAT HAPPENS PREVIOUSLY WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED
   FROM EARLY CONVECTION.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/04/2012
   
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