Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 100540
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
   NCNTRL OK...
   
   ...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TO NCNTRL OK...
   
   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO EWD MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  AT
   THE SFC...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A MID AFTERNOON POSITION LOCATED FROM
   NCNTRL MN...SSWWD INTO SERN NEB AND CNTRL KS.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE
   WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY AS VERY WARM EML HAS OVERSPREAD
   MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 14C AS FAR
   NORTH AS SERN SD.
   
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS POST FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
   BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...AIDED IN PART BY AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY BY MID DAY WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY
   18-21Z ACROSS NRN MN AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MID LEVEL COOLING
   REMOVE THE CAP.  LATEST NAM GUIDANCE EXHIBITS A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
   UNCAPPED PROFILE BY 18Z AT BJI WITH ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG SBCAPE. 
   ALTHOUGH THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS MODEL FORECAST DEW POINTS APPEAR
   TOO MOIST ACROSS THIS REGION.  REGARDLESS...CAP REMOVAL AND FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SWD DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS EXPECTED INTO NERN KS BY EARLY EVENING.  THERE
   MAY BE SOME PROPENSITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND
   THE COLD FRONT WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT IN RELATION TO ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT.  IN FACT...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONVECTION MAY
   DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KS/OK BORDER DESPITE THE VERY STRONG CAP
   THAT WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  THIS LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY
   WOULD CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT COULD OTHERWISE PRODUCE
   HAIL GIVEN THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
   ACROSS LOWER LATITUDES.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MN AND IF
   UPDRAFTS CAN STAY ROOTED IN WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER THERE MAY BE
   A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ORGANIZED DISCRETE STRUCTURES.  OTHERWISE IT
   APPEARS LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH CONVECTION SUNDAY.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF STATES...
   
   SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
   GULF BASIN INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
   FEATURE HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE LAST
   DAY OR SO ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND IMMEDIATE GULF STATES.  THERE IS
   REASON TO BELIEVE THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS VERY MOIST PROFILES...PW
   VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES...AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
   PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THIS REGION.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW
   PROBS FOR AN ISOLATED MOIST DOWNBURST OR PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF WEAK
   TORNADO.
   
   ..DARROW/SMITH.. 06/10/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z