Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 240601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION NWWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS
   A BELT OF STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   EWD INTO THE NERN U.S.  AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EWD
   WITH ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT BRUSHING THE NRN PLAINS. FARTHER
   EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE COAST OF NEW
   ENGLAND.
   
   THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
   WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 25/00Z AND EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES NWWD INTO SD. THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
   NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OVER SD.
   
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES WWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SVR WX
   DAY AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH MOD-STG INSTABILITY AND
   FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
   STG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 24/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOST
   PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES SE
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...EXPECT SVR
   TSTMS TO DEVELOP/REINTENSIFY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE SEWD
   INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS REGION. SVR TSTMS ARE
   ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING
   THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS. 
   
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE
   OF THE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 KTS
   ALONG THE MID-ATL COAST TO 45-50 KT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE PERPENDICULAR
   TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT WILL BE REASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   FARTHER W/NW...SCT SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT
   WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL PROVIDE
   ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
   STG/SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..BUNTING/LEITMAN.. 07/24/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z