Jan 11, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 11 12:50:30 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130111 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20130111 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20130111 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20130111 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.		 
   SPC AC 111246
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013
   
   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IL/INDIANA THIS MORNING
   WILL EJECT QUICKLY NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE
   CONTINUING TO LOSE AMPLITUDE.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE MOVING AWAY
   FROM THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE REGION...THUS THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   OTHERWISE...A STRONG JET STREAK OVER AZ/NM...ACCOMPANIED BY CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS LEE CYCLOGENESIS...WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   WILL PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY.  IN
   ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK
   TO THE NW ACROSS SE TX AND LA/MS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS MOISTURE
   WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT FROM E TX TO THE
   ARKLAMISS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FRONT0GENESIS AND WAA WITH A SWLY LLJ WILL
   PROMOTE ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
   THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AS WELL AS RATHER POOR
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY...SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL ARE UNLIKELY.
   
   ..THOMPSON/DISPIGNA.. 01/11/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z