Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 061256
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013
   
   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE LOW AMPLITUDE
   FOR MOST OF PERIOD AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVES IN NRN AND SRN STREAMS.  MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY...RAOBS...VWP PLOTS AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE ONE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH LOCATED FROM TX SOUTH-PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS SWD
   ACROSS NRN COAHUILA.  NRN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
   EJECT NEWD ACROSS NW TX...SERN OK AND AR TO WRN PORTIONS TN/KY BY
   06Z...THEN ERN KY AT END OF PERIOD.  SRN PORTION SHOULD MOVE MORE
   SLOWLY AND EWD...REACHING LA BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...PAC
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESEWD FROM NV AND SRN CA
   ACROSS PORTIONS AZ/NM.  AS THAT OCCURS...SEPARATE/SRN-STREAM
   PERTURBATION NOW OVER GULF OF CA WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS NRN
   MEX...REACHING TX BIG BEND REGION AROUND 00Z...AND CROSSING
   REMAINDER S TX OVERNIGHT.  WEAK PERTURBATION NOW OVER NRN ROCKIES
   WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TONIGHT. 
   
   AT SFC...HIGH-PLAINS LEE TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SLGT EWD
   SHIFT...AS LOW NOW NEAR DEN MOVES/REDEVELOPS TO SERN CO BY
   00Z...THEN SHIFTS SEWD ALONG FRONTOGENETIC ZONE TO WRN OK BY 12Z. AT
   THAT POINT...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO EXTEND SWWD FROM LOW ACROSS SERN
   NM.  FRONT ALSO WILL EXTEND NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND IA TO WEAK LOW
   OVER UPPER MS VALLEY...INDUCED BY NRN-STREAM/NRN-PLAINS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH.  FARTHER SE IN AND NEAR TSTM OUTLOOK...PATTERN HAS BEEN
   COMPLICATED ON MESOSCALE BY PRIOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  THAT
   ACTIVITY HAS LEFT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT 100 NM S GLS WSWWD
   ACROSS BAFFIN BAY REGION AND ZAPATA COUNTY TX.  THIS BOUNDARY
   ALREADY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED AGAIN
   DURING DAY AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURS S OF PERSISTENT TRAIN OF
   CLOUDS AND PRECIP NOW EVIDENT INVOF COT-GLS LINE.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS
   MADE ORIGINAL MARINE FRONTAL ZONE SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED TO ITS
   N...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD MERGE OVER NWRN GULF. RESULTANT/REDEVELOPED
   MARINE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS LA COAST BY END OF
   PERIOD...PERHAPS PENETRATING INLAND OVER SERN LA DEPENDING ON
   MODULATION OF BOUNDARY BY CONVECTION TO ITS N.
   
   ...S TX TO SRN LA...
   REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 115 REGARDING NEAR-TERM/MRGL SVR THREAT
   OVER PORTIONS S TX.  
   
   MRGL-PROBABILITY AREA WILL BE CHARACTERIZED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD
   BY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND
   MODEST BUOYANCY LIMITED BY AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. AREAS OF
   STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY OCCUR IN ANY OF AT LEAST THREE
   MOST-PROBABLE SCENARIOS THROUGH PERIOD...
   
   1. SRN PORTION OF EXISTING PRECIP PLUME...CONTAINING SCATTERED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...MAY BUILD SWD AS
   OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY DRIFTS NWD AND TIGHTENS
   SOMEWHAT.  ALSO...12Z CRP RAOB SHOWS SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED
   PARCEL N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH UPPER 60S SFC TEMP.  AS
   SUCH...SFC-BASED PARCELS MAY BECOME AVAILABLE TO SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...IN TURN SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
   AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.  HODOGRAPHS ALONG BOUNDARY WILL BE ENHANCED
   SOMEWHAT BY BACKING OF SFC WINDS...THOUGH THOSE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
   RATHER WEAK. THIS ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
   WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF ANY CELLS THAT CAN INTERACT
   WITH BOUNDARY EITHER IN THIS OR NEXT REGIME.  ALSO...SINCE ISOLATED
   HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OF BOUNDARY...MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES ARE
   KEPT ALONG MID-UPPER TX COAST. 
   
   2. ANY TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY IF INTERACTING
   WITH BOUNDARY OVER DEEP S TX...ALSO MAY POSE AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR
   THREAT.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN WARM SECTOR
   APPEARS VERY WEAK AND UNCERTAIN...AND SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR
   AT ALL. 
   
   3. COASTAL SRN/SERN LA...DURING LATE/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...APPEARS
   CONDITIONALLY TO BE GREATEST THREAT POTENTIALLY REQUIRING OUTLOOK
   UPGRADE.  ANTECEDENT CONVECTION MAY ABATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW BOUNDARY
   INLAND AND...IN TURN...PERMIT CONVECTION TO ACCESS SFC-BASED
   PARCELS.  FCST HODOGRAPHS ALONG MARINE FRONT ARE RATHER LARGE--WITH
   0-1 KM AGL SRH 300-500 J/KG AND 55-65 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT
   BENEATH SIMILAR 500-MB WIND SPEEDS.  ANY SFC-BASED TSTMS INTERACTING
   WITH THIS SORT OF ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE TORNADO AND DAMAGING-GUST
   THREAT...BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO BOOST
   PROBABILITIES TO CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS ATTM.
   
   ..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 02/06/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z