Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 090548
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST BUILDS
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN CANADA...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH...NOW DIGGING INTO NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA...
   APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES TODAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF BROADER SCALE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER
   TROUGHING.  PHASING OF THIS LATTER FEATURE WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES
   EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS ALREADY
   UNDERWAY...AND VERY STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS.  
   
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CYCLONIC
   500 MB JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 100 KT WILL NOSE ACROSS THE
   TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS
   APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
   ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
   INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
   
   AT THE SAME TIME...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SERIES OF LESS
   PROMINENT SPEED MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
   PROPAGATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
   BIG BEND...TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...IN MANY RESPECTS...IS TYPICAL OF
   ONE THAT MIGHT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST
   OR DEEP...AND A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE
   SLOW TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SURFACE...IN THE WAKE RECENT
   LOW-LEVEL COOLING.  THE NAM/SREF SUGGEST THAT EVEN RATHER MODEST
   MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY NOT REACH PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
   SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  AND
   BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL
   REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
   
   EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/STRONG FORCING
   FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY IN A BROKEN
   LINE...ROUGHLY NEAR/EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...SOUTHWARD
   INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...DURING THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.  IT DOES
   APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER COUPLING
   OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONGER LIFT...ON THE
   DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
   PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS...FOR SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  THIS MAY INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK
   FOR TORNADOES...IN THE PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   
   THEREAFTER...EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHERN
   FLANK OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND GROW
   UPSCALE...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OFF TO THE EAST
   SOUTHEAST...WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
   NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER DURING THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ENHANCED BY FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING SLOW MOISTURE
   RETURN...AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
   JET AXES.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR/SMITH.. 02/09/2013
   
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