Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 111245
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
   
   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WI UPR LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT E AND DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER
   THE LWR GRT LKS THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM FURTHER AMPLIFIES
   ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BEGINS TO TURN EWD ACROSS NM. 
   
   AT THE SFC...REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS
   LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE E/SE ACROSS THE ERN STATES AND
   TN VLY TODAY. IN THE SOUTH...THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERTAKE EXISTING
   WSW-ENE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM
   YESTERDAYS PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQLN. THE COMBINED
   BOUNDARIES SHOULD SETTLE SLOWLY S INTO THE N CNTRL GULF THROUGH THE
   END OF THIS PERIOD...AND OFF THE SC CST TNGT. 
   
   ...FAR SE TX/CNTRL GULF CST ENE TO CSTL GA/SC TODAY...
   RELATIVELY FAST /60 KTS AT 500 MB/...DEEP WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
   FROM SE TX TO THE S ATLANTIC CST TODAY ON FAR SRN FRINGE OF UPR
   SYSTEM CROSSING THE GRT LKS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A WEAK
   DISTURBANCE NOW OVER S CNTRL TX THAT TEMPORARILY WILL ENHANCE
   MID/UPR LVL WINDS TODAY OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST ENE INTO GA. LOW-LVL
   BUOYANCY AND CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
   YESTERDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CONVERGENCE EXPECTED FROM FAR SERN LA
   ENE INTO SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND S GA...ALONG COMPOSITE
   OUTFLOW LEFT FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS.  
   
   MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   LATER TODAY AS IT SAGS SLOWLY E/SEWD...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN AL AND
   THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA. COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED ENE
   MOVEMENT OF TX UPR IMPULSE...AND JUXTAPOSITION OF HI PWS WITH
   STRONG/DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD
   BROKEN/LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS THAT OCCASIONALLY ASSUME
   BOWING STRUCTURES. THESE COULD PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR WIND
   AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...BUT WEAK BUOYANCY AND COMPARATIVELY WEAK
   LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT.  
   
   ...NW/CNTRL TX EARLY TUE...
   WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER WRN AND CNTRL TX TNGT
   THROUGH EARLY MON AS UPR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM NM. WHILE PW LIKELY
   WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /BLO 1 INCH/...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE/DCVA...SETUP MAY
   PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS. WITH CLOUD
   LAYER SHEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...A FEW CELLS COULD YIELD SVR HAIL.
   NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE INCREASING MID-LVL BUOYANCY/ASCENT...EXPECT
   THAT RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL PRECLUDE AN
   APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 02/11/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z