Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 121259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2013
   
   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL/ERN GULF CST INTO S
   GA/SRN SC...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
   WED...WITH MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MODERATELY STRONG SRN
   BRANCH TROUGH NOW ENTERING W TX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEAMPLIFY LATER
   TODAY AND TNGT AS IT SHEARS ENEWD IN CONFLUENT...DOWNSTREAM WSWLY
   FLOW OVER THE TN VLY.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...FRONTAL ZONE LEFT FROM UPR TROUGH NOW EXITING NEW
   ENGLAND REMAINS QSTNRY ATTM FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO ENE ACROSS
   THE NRN GULF INTO FAR NRN FL. THE ERN HALF OF THE BNDRY SHOULD
   RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AS A SFC WAVE
   DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPR SYSTEM
   APPROACHING FROM TX. THE WAVE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS
   THIS EVE...AND OVER S CNTRL GA BY 12Z WED...WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING ENE INTO SRN SC BY THAT TIME. 
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST INTO S GA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
   ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   DAY FROM E CNTRL AND NE TX EWD INTO MUCH OF LA AND MS AS
   WAA/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE ATOP SHALLOW COOL DOME N OF
   STALLED FRONT WITH APPROACH OF TX UPR IMPULSE. POSITIVE TILT NATURE
   OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT
   UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS
   CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL.
   
   LATE TODAY INTO TNGT...A MORE APPRECIABLE AND SFC-BASED SVR THREAT
   MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E AND SE...DOWNSTREAM FROM SFC WAVE EXPECTED TO
   FORM IN THE NWRN GULF. AS THIS WAVE MOVES ASHORE OVER SE LA...EXPECT
   MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL RETURN NWD
   ACROSS FAR SRN MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
   ASCENT/30-40 M HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED ENE MOTION
   OF THE TX TROUGH...SETUP MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF
   SFC OR NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT OVER SE LA/FAR SRN
   MS AND SRN AL BY EVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE/DEVELOP ENE
   ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY WED...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PANHANDLE
   FL...S GA AND...EVENTUALLY...SRN SC.
   
   WHILE DEEP...DECIDEDLY WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL MINIMIZE
   LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE...IN THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LWR
   TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SETUP ALSO WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF BOWING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE
   MAY YIELD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
   TNGT/EARLY WED AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KTS INVOF WARM
   FRONT E OF SFC WAVE.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 02/12/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z