Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 181257
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FOR E TX...NW LA...AND SRN AR...
   
   ...E TX/NW LA/SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
   MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
   PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATING FROM OK/AR TO THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE IN NE KS WILL
   DEVELOP NEWD AND CONSOLIDATE WITH A SEPARATE LOW NOW IN E CENTRAL
   MN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP EWD/SEWD
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  THIS
   FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO TX THIS MORNING...WITH MID 50S
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND LOW 60S ALONG
   THE LOWER TX COAST...LARGELY AS FORECAST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM. 
   CONTINUED NWD/NEWD MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
   BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   OK/TX.  THE CAP WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
   RESULT OF SOMEWHAT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS...THOUGH A
   FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE W EDGE
   OF THE RICHER MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL INTO E TX.  MODIFIED OBSERVED
   AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG INTO THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN WITH
   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NE TX/SE
   OK...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO TONIGHT.  THE
   COMBINATION OF WEAK BUOYANCY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS STORMS LIKELY ORGANIZE
   INTO A LINEAR CONFIGURATION...PRIOR TO THE CONVECTION MOVING E/NE OF
   THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 02/18/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z