Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 191621
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2013
   
   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
   INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS
   THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALONG
   AND AHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT MODEL
   GUIDANCE SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO
   MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE BUT THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY DOES
   NOT JUSTIFY 10 PERCENT PROBABILITIES AND THE THUNDER AREA ACROSS THE
   SE STATES HAS BEEN REMOVED. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
   OFFSHORE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE GULF
   STREAM BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF AFFECTING LAND AREAS. 
   
   FARTHER W...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD ACROSS
   CA...AIDED BY A STRONG JET STREAK TROUGH ITS WRN HALF. STRONG
   FORCING AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
   WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW CONVECTIVE STORMS ACROSS COASTAL CA.
   ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL NV AS
   THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN BOTH
   CASES...WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...SW TX...
   MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AS THE CA UPPER
   TROUGH APPROACHES. EMBEDDED SPEED MAX/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
   THIS INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
   PER WV IMAGERY...WILL EJECT INTO TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
   MORNING. INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   ENHANCED SLY RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
   PLAINS...WITH LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY LATE IN
   THE PERIOD. MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A RELATIVELY WARM EML ARE EXPECTED
   TO KEEP INSTABILITY RATHER LOW BUT SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
   IN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
   
   ..MOSIER/HART.. 02/19/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z